Mantoverde Copper-Gold Mine Labor Negotiations Progress, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Thursday, December 25, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $12,191/mt overnight. After opening, it fluctuated rangebound at high levels, touched a high of $12,230/mt, then its price center gradually moved down, touched a low of $12,028/mt, subsequently the price center rose and fluctuated rangebound, finally closing at $12,133/mt, a gain of 0.65%. Trading volume decreased by 8,111 lots to 18,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,248 lots to 340,000 lots, mostly due to short covering. The most-traded SHFE copper 2602 contract opened at 95,910 yuan/mt overnight. At the beginning of the session, it touched a high of 96,000 yuan/mt, then the copper price center gradually moved down, probing a low of 94,180 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 95,020 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.25%. Trading volume decreased by 162,000 lots to 145,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 14,000 lots to 244,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Minutes] News:
(1) On December 24, the workers' union at the Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile, owned by Canada's Capstone Copper, stated that workers are prepared to strike if mediation for a new collective bargaining agreement fails. The union, comprising 645 members, rejected a contract proposal in mid-December. The government has initiated an initial five-day mediation process, which can be extended by another five days if both parties agree. Capstone Copper holds a 70% stake in the Mantoverde mine, and Mitsubishi Minerals holds the remaining 30%. The mine is expected to produce 29,000-32,000 mt of copper cathode in 2025.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: During the morning session on December 24, the SHFE copper 2601 contract generally fluctuated rangebound between 94,800-95,230 yuan/mt, declining to around 93,800 yuan/mt by the end of the session. The inter-month price spread was basically between a contango of 220-180 yuan. As copper prices continue to surge, some downstream enterprises have already suspended furnace operations and production. A further decrease is expected today.
(2) Guangdong: On December 24, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was at a discount of 200-150 yuan/mt against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 175 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 270-250 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 260 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 94,895 yuan/mt, up 1,315 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 94,810 yuan/mt, up 1,315 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, as copper prices rose significantly, downstream activity halted, forcing suppliers to lower prices to move cargo, but actual transactions remained sluggish.
(3) Imported copper: On December 24, warrant prices were $50-60/mt, QP January, the average price was flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $48-60/mt, QP January, the average price was flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $4-16/mt, QP January, the average price decreased by $4/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in late December and early to mid-January.
(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on December 24, the futures closing price was 95,220 yuan/mt, up 1,270 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was -310 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 600 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 82,600-82,800 yuan/mt, up 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,544 yuan/mt, up 410 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 2,445 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as overseas markets faced pre-holiday short squeezes, copper prices hit another record high. Trading in the secondary copper rod market remained sluggish, while the unit price of recycled copper raw materials rose again, leading copper rod enterprises to almost suspend procurement.
Price: On the macro front, as the Christmas holiday arrived, market trading was mediocre. Influenced by stronger economic data and weak employment data, the US dollar index maintained a fluctuating trend. On the fundamentals side, continuously surging copper prices continued to suppress downstream procurement demand. Overall, copper prices were expected to hover at highs today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]